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Fundamentals June 2017

21 Jun 2017
The June 2017 edition of Fundamentals, our monthly thought leadership newsletter, is now available.

Download The Full Publication: Fundamentals June 2017 (PDF | 2 MB)

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 In this month's edition:

SHOCK DECLINE IN GDP GROWTH AND A ROBUST RAND

While incoming data pointed to weak economic activity, the broad-based nature of contraction was a greater shock than the decline itself.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017: Shock decline in GDP Growth (PDF | 69 KB)

A LETHAL COCKTAIL FOR BONDS: SLOW GROWTH, FISCAL CONCERNS AND STRONG FOREIGN DEMAND

Negative ratings momentum does not match foreign investors’ aggressive accumulation of local currency bonds. This mismatch means we are taking a cautious approach.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017: A Lethal Cocktail (PDF | 93 KB)

TECHNICAL RECESSION INDICATES SARB IS BEHIND THE CURVE ON RATE CUTS

Falling inflation, a stronger rand and smaller current account and foreign financing deficits all point to the need for an interest rate cut.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017: Technical Recession (PDF | 129 KB)

CAPTIVATED BY CULTURE, CONTRADICTIONS AND CHANGE

Our search for world-class companies at the right price, led me to the world’s second-most populated country… and I foolishly thought I’d use a bicycle to get me through the streets of Mumbai.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017 - Captivated By Culture (PDF | 335 KB)

REIMAGINING ALPHA

Better returns and lower risk are driving flows into global quantitative funds. Machine learning and superfast computers are helping these funds constantly identify new alpha-generating ideas.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017 - Reimagining Alpha (PDF | 421 KB)

WHAT WAS REALLY BEHIND THE DOWNGRADES AND WHERE TO NOW?

While the markets had anticipated the downgrades, there are implications for our bond market, currency and economy going forward.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017: What Was Really Behind the Downgrades (PDF | 262 KB)

SA INVESTS IN GHANA’S LARGEST PRIVATE IPP

Investing in a combined cycle gas turbine plant that will power around one million Ghanaian households provides a template for future project finance for independent power producers across Africa.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017: SA Invests In Ghana IPP (PDF | 94 KB)

COULD MOUNTING DEBT IN CHINA UNEARTH GLOBAL GROWTH SHOOTS?

As China tackles rising debt problems, authorities indicated that regulatory tightening will remain in place for some time – raising concerns over the medium-term outlook for the economy.

Download: Fundamentals June 2017: Mounting Debt in China (PDF | 143 KB)

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